MAP’s 2025F M&A Market Outlook: (As of Q2 2025)

How’s the market? Here’s our 2025F M&A Market Outlook: (As of Q2 2025)

Media Advisory Partners (“MAP”) is forecasting 4,450 completed transactions in Q2 2025 (in North America). April & May 2025 averaged 1,516 deals per month – suggesting that MAP’s Q2 2025 forecast is attainable if current deal volumes persist in June 2025.

There’s some momentum heading into Q2 2025. In the last quarter (Q1 2025), M&A deal volumes in North America increased by 19% year-over-year.

Recent geopolitical instability and potential recessionary risk have caused leading M&A outlook reports for H2 2025 to be mixed. For example, in April 2025, EY-Parthenon predicted “flat corporate volumes and a modest increase in private equity deals” as a part of their “US M&A Outlook for 2025.” Despite citing “trade uncertainty,” EY-Parthenon is still forecasting a modest 1% increase in Private Equity (“PE”) deal count in 2025.

OUR 2025 M&A OUTLOOK (for H2 2025):

⬆️ 2025 SCENARIO A (bullish): Interest Rate Cut(s) + Geopolitical Stabilization = Increased M&A Deal Volumes (~4,900+ deals per quarter on average)

➡️ 2025 SCENARIO B (flatline): No 2025 Interest Rate Cut + Continued Geopolitical Instability = Potential M&A Deal Volume Plateau (~4,550 deals per quarter on average)

⬇️ 2025 SCENARIO C (bearish): Resurgent Inflation + Pronounced Geopolitical Instability = M&A Deal Volume Declines (~3,950 or less deals per quarter on average)